What Speedrunning Teaches About Expected Value

Last updated: 2026-07-04

The Day a Reset Beat Me by 0.03 Seconds

I was on gold pace. Hands cold. Heart fast. I missed a small window by three frames. My thumb knew it first. I paused, stared at the timer, and hit reset. It hurt. Ten minutes later, a clean route and a calm head got me a better time. That day, a reset won by 0.03 seconds.

Back then I thought runs were about bravery. Later I learned they are about math and care. Every choice in a run has a cost and a chance. You can see this in your splits. You can also see it on speedrun leaderboards. The top times are a story of many small, smart bets.

Definition, no fluff

Expected value (EV) is the average result you get if you repeat the same choice many times. If a trick saves 5 seconds half the time and loses 20 seconds the other half, its EV is (0.5 × 5) + (0.5 × -20) = -7.5 seconds. That is bad EV for a run that aims to finish fast.

Why Expected Value Hides in Your Splits

This guide is for runners, makers, and anyone who makes fast choices under stress. I will show how EV helps you pick strats, when to reset, and how to deal with luck and mood. I will keep the words simple. The math will stay kind.

Field Notes From 500 Resets

Here is what I learned after a lot of runs in games like SM64, Celeste, and Hades. Early game tricks feel free. They are not. They cost time and focus when they fail. Late game tricks feel scary. They are not always. Sometimes they are cheap if you are off pace.

In live shows, safe lines win. Watch Games Done Quick marathons. Runners pick routes that have lower risk. Viewers get a smooth run. The EV is high because the goal is to finish clean on stage, not to hunt a WR.

Solo streams and PB hunts are a different world. Your EV target is the best time you can get this month. Your choices can be sharper. But they still need to fit your real skills, not your wish list.

The Reset Equation: EV, Opportunity Cost, and Sanity

If EV is new to you, start here: expected value (intro). In a run, think in units of seconds and chances. For any choice, ask: what is the time I gain if it works? What is the time I lose if it fails? What is the chance for each?

Now add one more term: the price of a try. Each reset eats minutes. It also eats focus. A “free”